They say it can’t be done, but here at Money Morning we attempt to broadly forecast what’s coming next for the economy.

Once you understand the underlying forces which drive the economy, you will have access to insight that few people ever attain.

It has less to do with the movement of central banks or the stock market.  Or movements in interest rates, inflation, or some other mechanism.

It’s based on the real estate market.

What happens in the real estate market underlies the economic cycle. And the cycle simply continues to repeat.


Property Markets History

A man by the name of Homer Hoyt identified the repetition of this real estate cycle in a book written back in 1933, called ‘One Hundred Years of Land Values in Chicago.’

A study of history as Homer Hoyt did it, with a focus on land values, proved the economy moved in a very clear sequence of roughly 18 to 20 year cycles.

It’s directly related to land price and it repeats regardless of government policies and the type of government in power.

And nothing has changed since Homer Hoyt wrote the book in 1933. The real estate cycle simply keeps reaffirming itself.

The financial reforms initiated after the global financial crisis, have only guaranteed yet another real estate cycle, as that crisis was not financial in nature.

It was a land crisis

And whilst the underlying cause of the cycle is ignored, the real estate cycle must repeat.

Read more

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